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Feudal Future Podcast: Behind the Scenes of Global Labor

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 22 Sep 2023 20:56:27 -0400

Ever marveled at the staggering trends of youth unemployment and labor participation across the globe? Each region presents its own set of challenges; on this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by John Russo of Georgetown University and Rob Koepp of Chapman's Asia-Pacific Geoeconomics and Business Initiative, bring their insights to the table.

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

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Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Austin Leads Working at Home Commute Share: 2022

Wendell Cox — Fri, 15 Sep 2023 17:49:45 -0400

The just released American Community Survey indicates that 28.0% of the commuters in the Austin metropolitan area work from home, which is the highest figure among the 56 major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 population). Austin displaces last year’s leader, San Francisco.

The table below lists the 10 major metropolitan areas with the largest work from home shares in 2022. Each of these metropolitan areas has been rated as a tech hub by industry publications.

WORK FROM HOME MARKET SHARE: 2022
Major Metropolitan Area	Work from Home
Austin, TX	28.0%
San Francisco, CA	27.0%
Raleigh, NC	26.1%
Washington, DC-A-MD-WV	25.4%
Seattle, WA	25.4%
San Jose, CA	24.4%
Denver, CO	23.7%
Portland, OR-WA	23.3%
Charlotte, NC-SC	22.3%
Phoenix, AZ	21.7%
Source: American Community Survey: 2022

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast: Will A.I. Replace Us? OpenAI & Chat GPT

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 14 Feb 2023 18:41:12 -0500

On this episode of The Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky discuss OpenAI & Chat GPT with mathematician and academic, Daniele Struppa.

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Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

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For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

American Unions are Making a Comeback

Joel Kotkin — Tue, 19 Apr 2022 11:27:15 -0400

Recent victories for unions at Amazon, Starbucks and Apple stores suggest to some a resurgence of America’s long declining labour movement. Amid deepening labour shortages, soaring rents and more concern about class divides, this could be a time for a union renaissance — especially for large, well-financed firms.

The politics will be complex. Democrats, traditionally pro-union, face an embarrassing conundrum, since the companies most likely to face continued union drives — Amazon, Apple, Google and Starbucks tend to be among their big money funders. The recent Amazon vote of a union in one of the company’s high pressure, tech-monitored warehouses was also a slap in the face for Jeff Bezos, a key funder of progressive causes and owner of the gentry liberal mouthpiece, The Washington Post.

On top of these political challenges, the pandemic has had a mixed effect on union drives. Over the last two years, private sector union membership has actually declined, and younger workers’ total unionisation rates now approach 4% of the workforce. In 2021 strike activity was actually well below those of previous years.

But conditions could be changing, in large part due to a mounting labour shortage. U.S. population growth has dropped from 20% in the eighties to less than 5% in the last decade. What’s more, the number of new workers has fallen by two million over the past decade, creating what the consulting firm EMSI calls a “sansdemic” (i.e. without enough people). This could provide an ideal moment for unions to press their case that they do indeed generate higher wages; certainly the public is more supportive than in the past, with 65% favouring union efforts.

As the economy opens, there are massive shortages across the employment front — from nurses and delivery people to farm labourers, retail and hotel workers, truckers and restaurant workers. Nearly 90% of companies recently surveyed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce blamed a lack of available workers for slowing the economy, more than twice as many as blamed pandemic restrictions. Such labour shortages exert wage pressure, which has resulted in corporations like Target and Walmart announcing sweeping wage increases.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.