geopolitics

Feudal Future Podcast — Non-Aligned Nations Navigating a Multipolar World

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 19 Aug 2025 15:51:52 -0400

The global balance of power is undergoing a dramatic transformation that extends far beyond the US-China rivalry dominating Western headlines. This eye-opening conversation with experts from three continents reveals how developing nations are reshaping international relations through demographic advantages, economic growth, and strategic non-alignment.

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, Associate Director of the Center for Demographics and Policy, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Trump's Iran Ceasefire Depends on American Oil

Joel Kotkin — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 12:47:19 -0400

One might not easily associate Donald Trump with Otto von Bismarck. Yet like the Iron Chancellor, who was famous for embracing the realpolitik of “blood and steel” in forging the German Empire, Trump has found his own formula — based largely on America’s tech savvy and energy abundance — to intimidate enemies and control friends.

The US President last night announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after a 12-day war, though Israel has this morning accused Tehran of immediately violating the order. As the conflict threatens to restart already, energy policy could prove a critical determining factor.

Suggestions from the Iranian government that it would close the pivotal Strait of Hormuz clearly haven’t deterred Washington. Threats to shut down oil production would previously have terrified an America which just two decades ago was the world’s largest importer of oil. Now, the picture is very different. Largely thanks to fracking, America is the number-one producer of oil and gas globally, most of it produced in Trump-friendly states such as Texas. The Permian basin, located in the arid wastes of the western reaches of the Lone Star State, now constitutes the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, and is soon expected to be responsible for half of all US output. Other areas such as Pennsylvania, with its expansive fracking economy, also seem likely to benefit.

Across the Atlantic, much of Europe’s declining influence stems from its ruinous embrace of Net Zero policies. Britain, once an energy power, has dropped its previously substantial fossil fuel production by two-thirds since the turn of the century — all while consumption has only fallen by a third. The country increasingly depends on imports from outside the European Union, even as an estimated 25 billion barrels remain untapped in the North Sea.

Other European countries, notably Germany, suffer from the same dilemma, as high prices have undermined once-potent industrial economies. Much of the continent has simply shifted its dependence from Russian oil and gas to Gulf producers such as Qatar, a country which has consistently bankrolled Islamist radicalism. In contrast, the only state in contiguous America which imports most of its crude oil energy from foreign countries is hyper-liberal California.

As Europe appears resigned to the sidelines of the Middle East conflict, another significant advantage held by Trump is in military technology and cutting-edge defence systems. This includes everything from stealth technology, as shown by the success of Saturday’s B-2 attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, to developing artificial intelligence-based systems from the likes of Anduril and Palantir.

Read the rest of this piece at: UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Feudal Future Podcast — Europe at the Crossroads

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:10:50 -0400

The economic and political landscape between the United States and Europe is undergoing a seismic shift as Trump’s tariff threats create ripples across the Atlantic. Our expert guests, Professor Veronica de Romanis from Rome and journalist Fraser Myers from London, provide fascinating insights into how European countries are responding to this new economic reality.

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For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

The Five Years of Feudal Future

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 16 May 2025 11:47:03 -0400

As the Feudal Future podcast marks its fifth anniversary, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky examine how dramatically our society has evolved since they first warned about the emergence of neo-feudalism—a concentration of wealth and power resembling historical feudal systems.

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For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Armenia Signals Intention to Join the European Union

Wendell Cox — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 13:30:18 -0500

Asbarez.com, the Glendale California based bilingual newspaper (Armenian and English) reported that Armenian “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government officially announced that it will back a bid for Armenia’s membership in the European Union” (EU) Asbarez added:

“The government on Thursday essentially backed a bill on the ‘start of a process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union’ drafted by several political and civic groups, which collected around 60,000 signature in support of the measure.

“The EU has expressed strong political support for Armenia’s democracy on various occasions,” Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said during a weekly cabinet meeting in Yerevan. “The EU has expressed its willingness and has in fact been involved in ensuring a security environment around Armenia.”

Mirzoyan also recalled Pashinian’s 2023 statement that Armenia is “ready to be as close to the EU as the EU deems possible.”

A complication is that Armenia is presently a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), In reaction to the Armenian announcement, the Russian government responded:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk reacted swiftly, saying that the Armenian government’s decision signaled Yerevan’s desire to withdraw from the EEU, which Armenia chaired last year.

Commenting on the Armenian government’s decision earlier on Thursday, Overchuk said that the EU and the EAEU are incompatible, in particular, because “both unions assume the absence of customs borders and the free movement of goods, services, capital and workforce,” Interfax reported.

“We view the start of Armenia’s discussion on the bill launching the process of joining the European Union as the commencement of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU,” the Russian government’s press service quoted Overchuk as saying in a statement.

Obviously, this is likely to be a long process, but it is notable that it appears to have begun.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with Unleash Prosperity in Washington and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985), which was a predecessor agency to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro). Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — 2024 In Review

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Sun, 22 Dec 2024 15:19:12 -0500

What if the future of global politics looks more like a return to feudalism than continuous progress? Discover the surprising dynamics of 2024 as Marshall Toplansky and Joel Kotkin discuss the unraveling of the liberal world order and the rise of pragmatic priorities among voters. We uncover how shifting societal trends, from the unexpected support for Donald Trump among Latino voters to the growing focus on job security, are reshaping political strategies and questioning the effectiveness of identity politics.

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Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast — Exploring South Africa's Conservative Turn

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 06 Dec 2024 20:07:29 -0500

Dr. Franz Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo join us to unravel the unexpected conservative leanings within South Africa's electorate, a surprising twist given the nation's turbulent history. Together, we examine the African National Congress's promises and its transformative role since apartheid's end, leading to significant socioeconomic changes. Through historical insights, we gain a deeper understanding of how these foundational shifts continue to influence South Africa's political climate today.

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For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Why Are Gas Prices Falling? China

Wendell Cox — Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:46:36 -0400

Don’t give into the temptation to believe that the presently falling gasoline prices have something to do with the US Presidential election. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that China’s economic malaise is responsible. During the first six months of 2024, global oil demand increased only 800,000 barrels per day, down two-thirds from the first half of 2023 (2,300,000 barrels per day).re than twenty years' experience in planning, economic development, and community development, with stops in the public, private and non-profit sectors. He lives in Chicago.

IEA cites the increased utilization of electric vehicles in China, the reduction of travel by car and air, due to diversion to high-speed rail, though no data was provided on any of these factors.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Photo: An former airfield in Austin, Texas is being redeveloped into a multi-use community with both single and multi-family housing. By Matthew Rutledge via
Flickr under CC 2.0 License.

Feudal Future Podcast: Navigating the Global Politics That May Shape America's 2024 Elections

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Thu, 21 Mar 2024 17:52:00 -0400

Uncover the unforeseen ways foreign policy sways the American electoral tide with us, Marshall Toplansky and Joel Kotkin, as we host a conversation that traverses the global political landscape and its potential shocks to the 2024 elections. With luminaries like former U.S. Ambassador to Italy Ron Spogli and Asia Pacific expert Robert Koepp sharing their insights, this episode is a deep dive into the geopolitical undercurrents—from NATO's strategies to the East Asian power balance. We navigate the complex web of international relations that could very well dictate the next occupant of the White House.

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Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Goodbye to Davos and Good Riddance

Joel Kotkin — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 16:14:52 -0500

Once widely considered the gathering of the elite of a future world government, the World Economic Forum is leaving a legacy of increasing irrelevance. To be sure, the snow was good; the AI art installation and occasional forays into witchcraft may have stirred some; but the whole thing has devolved into a cocktail party for the self-important, with diminishing bearing on world politics.

The interconnected world envisioned by the WEF is disintegrating. Indeed, it has fallen victim to the resurgence of history and the rise of powers determined to return us to the glories of the Middle Ages. Davos existed in a world that believed in Francis Fukuyama’s end of history, but ended up looking a lot more like Samuel Huntington’s bleak vision in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Huntington was the first to describe “Davos man”, and appears to be accurate in having predicted his demise.

The growing irrelevance of what Adrian Wooldridge has labelled “the progressive aristocracy” can even be seen in the less than enthusiastic press coverage. Politico describes the contemporary Davos crowd as a “smart set” which “sounds dumb.” In the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead, pronounces “the humiliation of Davos man”. Even the establishmentarian Financial Times has to admit that “the hubris among the Davos set is palpable.”

The Forum maintains some cheerleaders for policies which have weakened liberal democracies around the world while serving the interests of the rising illiberal powers. The grandees don’t have to travel far to see the results of their “reset” as nearby Germany’s industrial machine collapses, with even its last solar panel plant about to go belly-up.

Green jobs increasingly seem to be reduced to the low-wage service type. The forced march towards renewables has only rewarded China, even as the country embarks on a coal-plant building spree and emits more greenhouse gases than all developed countries put together. The much-ballyhooed “energy transition” has favoured a China that already produces more than four times as many batteries as second-placed United States, and which controls critical raw materials including large concentrations of rare earths, lithium, copper and cobalt. China can thank the gnomes of Davos when it reaches its stated aim of becoming the leading global superpower by 2050.

Other “Great Reset” notions, like the arrogant assumption that large corporations and investment banks could mandate a better world, lie in ruins. The whole ESG movement, which sought to reward “right-thinking” executives, is falling apart, in large part because it makes no economic sense. Even millennials and Gen Z have adopted negative attitudes towards such elaborate virtue-signalling. An estimated $5 trillion in ESG assets has dissolved in just two years. What’s more, enlightened capitalist funds around the world are in free fall, notably renewable energy stocks, while traditional energy firms enjoy record profits.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.